xrp price today at 11:00 GMT on Oct 28, 2023, was between $0.50- $0.53 (6% amplitude), with a 24-hour trade of $870 million (CoinMarketCap #CMC257), which was 7.3% lower than yesterday’s volume. Volatility is driven by three reasons. New US SEC court filings against Ripple leadership state that the SEC could expand the lawsuit to include the company’s international business (Case No. 1:20-cv-10832). xrp price today dropped by 3.8% to $0.498 in 27 minutes after the news was announced. But the Hinman document submitted by Ripple’s attorneys (an internal memo of the SEC in 2018) added value that deflated the price by 2.9% to $0.512, producing a V-shaped reversal (the volatility index peaked at 71%).
On-chain data reflects the main force’s movement. The whale address, which has more than 10 million XRP (representing 37% of the circulating supply), has added 12 million (approximately 6.04 million US dollars) below $0.50, driving the Binance perpetual contract funding rate to 0.011% (bull-dominated). Nevertheless, at the $0.53 level, there remains a selling wall of 110 million XRP (around $56.7 million) (Santiment #SANAPI). Technical indicators show the battle between bulls and bears: The RSI (14th) rose moderately from 51.7 to 53.2, Bollinger bands narrowed to $0.495- $0.528, and the MACD histogram on the 4-hour chart crossed multiple times near the zero axis (±0.0002), showing short-term direction ambiguity.
Market sentiment is highly distinguished. X (ex-Twitter) social media discussions about “Ripple’s collaboration with the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates to test cross-border payments” surged by 55% (LunarCrush #LUNARCRUSH), but weighted sentiment was just -0.29, meaning investor fear about SEC regulatory risks wiped out the positive news. The derivatives market reacted strongly: The premium of OKEx quarterly contracts recovered from -0.7% to +0.3%, and the open interest volume increased by 8% (Coinglass #CGDATA), while Bybit’s XRP/USD perpetual contracts’ leverage ratio declined to 2.1 times (industry average 2.8 times), indicating a narrowing of risk appetite.
Liquidity dislocations on exchanges have increased volatility. South Korean Upbit exchange XRP/KRW trading pair has seen its premium rate grow from 4.2% to 8.1% due to technical issues, causing high-frequency arbitrage robot trading. This caused the xrp price today to oscillate by 3.5% in a 15-minute timeframe in the first Asian session (the Bitfinex order book showed the bid-ask spread to have widened to 0.9%). On-chain transfer observation reveals that during this period, Upbit hot Wallet leaked 18 million XRP (approximately 9.18 million US dollars), which accounts for 12% of its total reserves (XRP Scan blockchain browser).
Macro-level, the US dollar index (DXY) rose to 106.8 before the Federal Reserve’s November interest rate decision, causing the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies to fall by 1.9% in 24 hours. The 30-day correlation coefficient for XRP-Bitcoin hit a low at 0.47 (historic median 0.73). Ripple partner company MoneyGram stock (NYSE:MGI) lost 2.3%, degrading market trust in its mean daily cross-border settlement volume at $210 million (Q3 financial report). With respect to technical developments, XRP Ledger value locked (TVL) in the AMM pool increased to 61 million US dollars but contributed a mere 0.22% of market value circulating and lent merely marginal support to xrp price today.